📊 Global oil supplies are facing a major disruption
📊 Global oil supplies are facing a major disruption. Expect sharp price swings and deep inventory drawdowns.
⚠️ Keep in mind: This entire trajectory depends on how long the current shutdown lasts. If the current pace holds, we are looking at a severe supply crunch by late March.
🔼 Here is the data you need to trade the volatility.
🚨 RUSSIA ≠ REPLACEMENT FOR WEST ASIAN OIL 🚨
🛢 Sanctions Reality (Since 2022)
Russian crude never went offline
👉 ~9–9.5 mbd continued flowing via rerouting
👉 Shifted from Europe → India 🇮🇳 & China 🇨🇳
👉 Discounts + shadow fleet kept barrels moving
🛢 Capacity Reality
Total capacity: ~10 mbd
Current output: ~9–9.5 mbd
👉 Already near peak production
⚙️ Spare Capacity (The Real Constraint)
Only ~0.3–0.7 mbd available
👉 Cannot offset a 10–13 mbd Hormuz disruption
🌍 Crude Quality Check
Russian (Urals/ESPO): Medium sour
West Asian (Arab Light/Basrah): Medium sour
👉 Broadly similar, BUT:
Refinery configs differ
Yield mix varies
Logistics not interchangeable
⚠️ What This Means
✔️ Russia can reroute supply
❌ Russia cannot create new supply at scale
Russia can reroute barrels — but it cannot replace Hormuz.
