🔴 PRECIOUS METALS UNDER PRESSURE
• Gold slips below $4,550/oz, ~4.7% below recent high of $4,773
• Silver drops to $76, nearly 15% below peak of $89.30
📌 Key Drivers:
• US April CPI rises to 3.8% — highest since May 2023
• Producer prices post fastest growth since 2022
• Energy-driven inflation from Hormuz disruptions intensifying macro pressure
📈 Fed & Dollar Impact:
• Markets fully price out Fed rate cuts
• ~33% probability of a Fed hike by December
• Rising real yields + stronger USD continue to pressure bullion
🇮🇳 India Adds Demand Headwind:
• Gold & silver import tariffs raised from 6% → 15%
• Physical demand outlook weakens
📉 Weekly Move:
• Precious metals heading for ~4–5% weekly decline
• Silver underperforming due to industrial demand exposure
🔻 BASE METALS WEAKEN SHARPLY
• Copper and Aluminium plunges 3% after retreating from record highs
• Nickel, Zinc, Lead all down by over 1%
📌 What’s Driving the Selloff?
• Weak Chinese buying interest emerging
• Rising SHFE inventories easing copper tightness concerns
• Weak Shanghai spot premiums signal softer near-term demand
• Stronger USD and higher yields pressure industrial metals sentiment
⚠️ Zinc erased earlier gains despite disruption at Nexa Resources’ Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru
🌍 Macro Focus:
• Trump–Xi summit provided limited optimism on trade
• No durable Iran resolution yet
• Persistent inflation risks keeping markets cautious
📉 Near-Term Outlook:
• Tighter monetary expectations + softer Chinese demand continue to cap upside
• Supply-side risks remain supportive but insufficient to offset macro pressure
🛢 ENERGY COMPLEX OUTPERFORMS
✅ Crude oil remains the lone major gainer
• Brent surges above $109/bbl
• WTI trades near $105/bbl
• Both benchmarks headed for weekly gains of more than 6%
📌 Oil supported by:
• Ongoing Hormuz supply disruption fears
• Escalating geopolitical tensions
• Tightening global supply concerns
